Dry statistics to help predict drought

Thursday, 5 June 2008

A Statistics PhD student at the University of 亚洲彩票官网 could prove a godsend for Australia's farming sector, helping rural communities to better plan for future droughts.

Geraldine Wong is using advanced mathematical models to more accurately predict when, where, and for how long, droughts are expected to occur in Australia.

The information will assist the rural sector in determining the viability of different crops and drought mitigation measures in the presence of varying climatic conditions.

Ms Wong, a 25-year-old postdoctoral student in the , is analysing Australia's global climatic indices such as the (SOI) in conjunction with rainfall statistics to accurately predict future droughts in the short and long term.

"The drought in the past two years has cost Australia billions of dollars. This is a big issue for farmers and the nation. If we can forecast in advance the probability of occurrence and the severity of a drought, this will give the rural sector supporting information to help decide on investments such crops or water allocations," she says.

The mathematical models being used by Ms Wong, known as , are similar to those employed by the financial sector to predict stock market movements.

"Not many hydrologists have used this statistical method until recently, but it can show us